For whatever reason, it feels different to the times I used to come back for holidays. There seems to be an air of optimism and unity after this country has just hosted 3 major sporting events-the Indian Premier League Twenty/20, the Confederations Cup and the British and Irish Lions Rugby Tour. It just proves ‘we can’ do it. We can be amongst the best in the world and succeed! I need to start believing in South Africa again. I need to change my perception and attitude and start engaging again with my community. It has been a while, but if I want to settle here and make this home again, I can only start the change within ME and hope it will infiltrate through to others.

When departing for London town, it was the second time I had left home to live abroad. Previously I had spent a year living in Norway as an exchange student. The difference was that as an exchange student, I needed to be an ambassador for my country and keep up with what was happening on the home front as I often got asked questions about South Africa. When living in London, you are surrounded by so many South Africans that spreading the ‘Good News’ stories about our country is rarely done. It is a funny thing that! Cause unlike Americans or Australians who are in abundance too in London, we are largely disengaged and have an expectation that government must deliver before we return home to a safe and secure environment in which to live. It was these exact thoughts which were brought to light at a recent workshop I attended hosted by The Dinokeng Scenario Team.

The Dinokeng Scenarios- 3 Futures for South Africa

The Dinokeng Scenario Team, a diverse group of 35 South Africans, came together to map possible pathways into the future of this country (by the year 2020). The Team comprises South Africans from various political parties, government, civil society, religious groups, academia, media, business and trade unions, brought together under the auspices of prominent convenors. Dinokeng is a Sepedi word for “the place of rivers”. It reflects the diversity of South Africans and our ability to realise the full potential of this country so that all ‘our pasts can flow together to meet at a place and time’ and we can create a future together through our collective abilities of being agents of change.

Working on a quadrant with the vertical axes reflecting Engaged vs Disengaged characters of civil society(i.e citizens) and the horizontal axes reflecting Effective vs Ineffective capacity of the state (i.e Government), the Team mapped out 3 possible scenarios for the future of South Africa. Scenarios are not predictions-they describe possible future paths. All future pathways mapped out were dependent on two things:-

1. the quality of leadership in government and in society as a whole;
2. the quality of the relationship between citizens and the government. This relationship between citizens and the state, will determine whether and how we can build a successful future for South Africa.

The three scenarios mapped out are:
1. Walking Apart- Disengaged Citizens and Ineffective Government
In this scenario we continue on the same path that we are in today- Citizens continue to feel disengaged and become increasingly dependant on the government to provide everything.

Our pressing problems- unemployment, poverty, safety and security, and poor public health and education delivery- worsen.

The State continues to be ineffective and corrupt resulting in distrusting and self protective citizenry.

By 2020, the cracks widen. Due to cronyism in government appointments and tenders, social delivery remains inadequate, education falters, unemployment worsen due to lack of skills and the healthcare system fails.

The message of this scenario is that if we carry on the way we have, we will experience rapid disintegration and decline.

2. Walking Behind- Disengaged Citizens and Effective Government
In this scenario, the state decides to actively lead the process of development. It intervenes in the economy directly, giving increasing financial support to large State Owned Enterprises (SOE’s) and to major infrastructural projects. It also expands Public Works Programmes to create more jobs for unskilled people

But it does not take sufficient account of the global economic realities. Some of the big industrial projects that the state invested in are not competitive internationally and they cost the government money. The government is forced to borrow on the international markets at higher interest rates as investment ratings go down.

By 2020 there is widespread discontent and protest amongst the citizens as it is clear that private investors have been ‘crowded out’ by heavy government expenditure and uncompetitive conditions. The state cracks down and our democracy is compromised. This leads to the government imposing its will by force.

The message of this scenario is that state-led development cannot succeed if state capacity is weak and if private sector and civil society is pushed aside. As citizens the message is that we need to guard against being complacent and simply expecting the state to provide for everything.

3. Walking Together- Engaged Citizens and Effective Government
In this scenario, our challenges are addressed through active citizen engagement, a capable state and strong leadership across all sectors. Good governance, competent delivery and active citizen involvement become the key to fixing the most serious social problems that need to be addressed.

Citizens begin to take the initiative. They begin to demand an improvement in the delivery of the most important social services; education, health and safety.

Government listens to and understands the concerns of the citizens and begins to actively engage with them. Government takes the initiative- it draws in the trade unions and business to help solve the unemployment problem. It consults parents associations to try and improve education. It engages health committees to try to solve the problems that undermine the functioning of clinics and public hospitals.

By 2020, government’s focus is on better delivery. Citizens begin to feel they have been successful. Education improves, skills levels improve and investor confidence grows. Both citizens and government take ownership and work together to monitor the country’s key social service concerns. Politicians are directly accountable to voters as the country ushers in a change to a proportional representation system- if representatives fail voters, they can be voted out of office-a true democracy.

The message of this scenario is that it is going to take all of us to address our challenges. If citizens engage, take initiative and hold government accountable; if a more effective and capable government is built; and if leaders in all sectors rise above their narrow self-interests; then we may just set the country on the right path.
 

I know which path I want to be on…but I can’t walk on it alone

So as I reflect on the notions of hope and unity and review the clear pathways that the Dinokeng Scenario Team have set out, I want to be play a part in ‘Walking Together’ to create a better future. I have been away long enough to make a change and to work together with my fellow citizens in building a united country. I want to be able to say to my friends from America and Australia that I am ‘Proudly South African’ and believe it within myself!

This pathway not only reflects that a strong democracy is dependant on a capable state, but also on active and involved citizens who will work with and urge government to deliver on the promises of freedom. This pathway emphasises the importance of accountability and responsibility which needs to start with me and you in order to bring about change. ‘Walking together’ demonstrates that we cannot survive in a culture of inefficiency, disengagement and disconnection. We need to work together, shoulder more responsibility and adapt an aligned value system in order to build a future that lives up to the promise of democracy rather than corruption and expectation.

There is so much good work being done inside South Africa- our Constitution is world renowned and respected, we have made significant economic gains since the advent of democracy, unemployment has fallen and the reduction of our debt has allowed government to consistently increase social spending. The focus of this work now needs to reach the global South African citizens to raise their awareness of the active involvement of communities, leaders and government who are beginning to walk on the same path to help shape the future of South Africa and South Africans.

I do not regret my decision to return home just after the general elections and at a time of immense change. But as we stand at a crossroads of possible pathways, I will regret not playing a part in building our future and taking responsibility for change in our country. The Dinokeng Scenario Team created a space and language for open, reflective and reasoned strategic conversation amongst South Africans. It is up to me to embrace this space through the messages I spread and the steps I choose to take.

I want to be on the path of ‘Walking Together’ and I want you to walk with me…

Written by Leora Romberg